Importance of small earthquakes for stress transfers and earthquake triggering

We estimate the relative importance of small and large earthquakes for static stress changes and for earthquake triggering, assuming that earthquakes are triggered by static stress changes and that earthquakes are located on a fractal network of dimension D. This model predicts that both the number of events triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m and the stress change induced by this earthquake at the location of other earthquakes increase with m as \~10^(Dm/2). The stronger the spatial clustering, the larger the influence of small earthquakes on stress changes at the location of a future event as well as earthquake triggering. If earthquake magnitudes follow the Gutenberg-Richter law with b>D/2, small earthquakes collectively dominate stress transfer and earthquake triggering, because their greater frequency overcomes their smaller individual triggering potential. Using a Southern-California catalog, we observe that the rate of seismicity triggered by an earthquake of magnitude m increases with m as 10^(alpha m), where alpha=1.00+-0.05. We also find that the magnitude distribution of triggered earthquakes is independent of the triggering earthquake magnitude m. When alpha=b, small earthquakes are roughly as important to earthquake triggering as larger ones. We evaluate the fractal correlation dimension of hypocenters D=2 using two relocated catalogs for Southern California, and removing the effect of short-term clustering. Thus D=2alpha as predicted by assuming that earthquake triggering is due to static stress. The value D=2 implies that small earthquakes are as important as larger ones for stress transfers between earthquakes.Comment: 14 pages, 7 eps figures, latex. In press in J. Geophys. Re

Seismic hazards in Southern California : probable earthquakes, 1994 to 2024

We combine geodetic, geologic, and seismic information to estimate frequencies of damaging earthquakes in three types of seismotectonic zone. Type A zones contain faults for which paleoseismic data suffice to estimate conditional probabilities. Type B zones contain faults with insufficient data for conditional probability analysis. Type C zones contain diverse or hidden faults. Each zone is assumed to have randomly distributed earthquakes plus characteristic earthquakes on specific faults. Our “cascade” model allows for multiple-segment earthquakes. Within each zone, distributed earthquakes are assumed uniform in time and space, with a truncated Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. Thus, seismic hazard is defined by the characteristic earthquake rate, the rate of all distributed events, and the limiting (characteristic) magnitude. Limiting magnitudes are determined from fault lengths, while earthquake rates are determined by observed seismicity and seismic moment rate. We present a preferred seismic hazard model with lognormal recurrence and an alternate Poissonian model. The models predict 80 to 90% probability of an m ≧ 7 earthquake within southern California before 2024. The 17 January 1994 Northridge earthquake occurred within the 13% of southern California's area having the highest moment rate density. The probability of 0.2 g or greater shaking before 2024 exceeds 60% in the Ventura and San Bernardino areas, and 50% throughout the Transverse Ranges between Santa Barbara and San Bernardino. The predicted seismicity exceeds that observed historically. This may imply that (1) we underestimate the maximum magnitudes, (2) significant strain may be released aseismically, or (3) seismicity may have been anomalously low since 1850

Present‐day motion of the Sierra Nevada block and some tectonic implications for the Basin and Range province, North American Cordillera

Global Positioning System (GPS) data from five sites on the stable interior of the Sierra Nevada block are inverted to describe its angular velocity relative to stable North America. The velocity data for the five sites fit the rigid block model with rms misfits of 0.3 mm/yr (north) and 0.8 mm/yr (east), smaller than independently estimated data uncertainty, indicating that the rigid block model is appropriate. The new Euler vector, 17.0°N, 137.3°W, rotation rate 0.28 degrees per million years, predicts that the block is translating to the northwest, nearly parallel to the plate motion direction, at 13–14 mm/yr, faster than previous estimates. Using the predicted Sierra Nevada block velocity as a kinematic boundary condition and GPS, VLBI and other data from the interior and margins of the Basin and Range, we estimate the velocities of some major boundary zone faults. For a transect approximately perpendicular to plate motion through northern Owens Valley, the eastern California shear zone (western boundary of the Basin and Range province) accommodates 11±1 mm/yr of right‐lateral shear primarily on two faults, the Owens Valley‐White Mountain (3±2 mm/yr) and Fish Lake Valley (8±2 mm/yr) fault zones, based on a viscoelastic coupling model that accounts for the effects of the 1872 Owens Valley earthquake and the rheology of the lower crust. Together these two faults, separated by less than 50 km on this transect, define a region of high surface velocity gradient on the eastern boundary of the Sierra Nevada block. The Wasatch Fault zone accommodates less than 3±1 mm/yr of east‐west extension on the eastern boundary of the Basin and Range province. Remaining deformation within the Basin and Range interior is also probably less than 3 mm/yr

Seismicity rate immediately before and after mainshock rupture from high-frequency waveforms in Japan

International audienceWe analyze seismicity rate immediately before and after 82 mainshocks with the magnitudes ranging from 3 to 5 using waveforms recorded by the Hi-net borehole array in Japan. By scrutinizing high-frequency signals, we detect ~5 times as many aftershocks in the first 200 s as in the Japan Meteorological Agency catalogue. After correcting for the changing completeness level immediately after the mainshock, the aftershock rate shows a crossover from a slower decay with an Omori's law exponent p = 0.58±0.08 between 20 and 900 s after the mainshock, to a faster decay with p = 0.92±0.04 after 900 s. The foreshock seismicity rate follows an inverse Omori's law with p = 0.73±0.07 from several tens of days up to several hundred seconds before the mainshock. The seismicity rate in the 200 s immediately before the mainshock appears steady with p = 0.36±0.45. These observations can be explained by the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model, and the rate-and-state model for a heterogeneous stress field on the mainshock rupture plane. Alternatively, non-seismic stress changes near the source region, such as episodic aseismic slip, or pore fluid pressure fluctuations, may be invoked to explain the observation of small p values immediately before and after the mainshock

Geodetic Constraints on San Francisco Bay Area Fault Slip Rates and Potential Seismogenic Asperities on the Partially Creeping Hayward Fault

The Hayward fault in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) is sometimes considered unusual among continental faults for exhibiting significant aseismic creep during the interseismic phase of the seismic cycle while also generating sufficient elastic strain to produce major earthquakes. Imaging the spatial variation in interseismic fault creep on the Hayward fault is complicated because of the interseismic strain accumulation associated with nearby faults in the SFBA, where the relative motion between the Pacific plate and the Sierra block is partitioned across closely spaced subparallel faults. To estimate spatially variable creep on the Hayward fault, we interpret geodetic observations with a three-dimensional kinematically consistent block model of the SFBA fault system. Resolution tests reveal that creep rate variations with a length scale of \u3c15 km are poorly resolved below 7 km depth. In addition, creep at depth may be sensitive to assumptions about the kinematic consistency of fault slip rate models. Differential microplate motions result in a slip rate of 6.7 ± 0.8 mm/yr on the Hayward fault, and we image along-strike variations in slip deficit rate at ∼15 km length scales shallower than 7 km depth. Similar to previous studies, we identify a strongly coupled asperity with a slip deficit rate of up to 4 mm/yr on the central Hayward fault that is spatially correlated with the mapped surface trace of the 1868 MW = 6.9–7.0 Hayward earthquake and adjacent to gabbroic fault surfaces